Can Pandora Hit $40 a Share?
That's called conviction.
But you don't just pull conviction out of the air. You do the work. You apply rigor to your analysis. You talk to key people about the business. As a result, you can be relatively confident going against consensus. Sometimes you end up wrong despite the hard work, but, often, you come out vindicated.
These Wall Street analysts waxing bullish on Pandora's business model and mobile advertising revenue potential report the story once it becomes obvious, not when it actually took digging and the application of savvy, smarts and work ethic.
In any event, it often happens this way. Once almost every last person jumps on the bandwagon, I'm looking around to make sure I know where the emergency exits are. That's not to say, I'm down on Pandora, but there's no better time than the present to question the bullish thesis I have articulated since before Pandora bulls even existed.
However, this drivel from Paul La Monica of CNN/Money hardly qualifies as serious analysis of Pandora's future:
He uses the verifiably false anecdote that nobody uses Pandora anymore (they're all on Spotify), an unentertaining bit about Jack Johnson and the standard Pandora trades at 375,000 times 2035 earnings to argue the stock has gotten ahead of itself. Or something like that.
Do I have really have to even cite Pandora and Spotify subscriber numbers or explain how the Music Genome Project and pure-play Internet radio works or go over how meaningless valuation metrics have become?
I thought TheStreet's Chris Ciaccia did a nice job answering the question Can Pandora hit $40? Nothing would surprise him with this mobile Web stock. Same here. Sometimes the simple, non-quantitative answer is just the best one.