Open Your Mind: Amazon Is NOT Netflix
But, man, that's a bad way to float through life, especially from an intellectual standpoint. Things change. And even if they don't, there's often a legitimate exception to what you think is the rule.
At times, that thing you can't seem to wrap your head around is indeed the product of an irrational world. That doesn't mean you're right ... right now. It just means that, at times, you'll end up vindicated. I expect that to happen with me vis-a-via Apple (AAPL) . It happened with me on Netflix (NFLX) in 2011. I expect the same to happen again in 2013 or 2014.
I'm proud of myself for how I'm handling Netflix this time around. I'm executing the intellectual exercise stubborn folk such as myself loathe -- I'm budging. In 2011, when I was certain Netflix would crash, I jumped in the front of the train that was NFLX stock. I refuse to make the same mistake twice. I know Netflix should crash again, but I have been bullish on the piece of paper that is NFLX stock from around $60.
Sometimes you have to budge; at other times, you just have to come completely out of your comfort zone and come to terms with a reality you not only cannot comprehend, but think is patently absurd. That's what bewildered bears absolutely must do with Amazon.com (AMZN) . Quite frankly, the persistent bearish sentiment in the face AMZN moving higher -- almost in a straight line -- has become comical.
Quarter after quarter, I tell you what will happen with AMZN. And, quarter after quarter, it pretty much goes down something like this: Amazon reports whatever it reports -- it really doesn't matter -- the stock initially drops, bears think the world finally righted itself, but, lo and behold, AMZN finds support and moves higher. This next leg will take the stock towards and quite possibly past $300.