Apple Sell-Off: About A Year Too Soon
Gundlach, short AAPL since April from around $610, humbly admits he has been "sort of right and sort of wrong." Solid perspective.
He also lamented the loss of Steve Jobs. The innovator is gone . There's another thing I agree with.
On Apple, Gundlach and I share sentiment. That should make me happy. I am in the company of a market God.
In this world, that often leads to an article crowing about how right I have been all along. Label the remaining AAPL bulls clueless peasants and call it a day.
But I can't do that. It would be disingenuous.
And, to his credit, Gundlach isn't disingenuous either. You can smack that tag on about 95% of the financial media, though.
The media chose to ignore what really happened to AAPL on Wednesday (and will likely happen on several occasions between now and the end of the year) in favor of the frantic part of the story.
Here's the score.
This long-term downfall that Gundlach sees happening -- and that the media harped on Wednesday -- is somewhere between six to 12 months out, if it even ever happens.
I don't buy the notion that, all of a sudden, the market is this well-oiled, forward-looking machine.
If it was, AAPL would have sold off the day Steve Jobs expired. And stayed sold off.
Instead, it's up 50% since Jobs's death. And that's after recent weakness. The "market" didn't just wake up sometime in September and decide, "yeah, now's the time to dump this thing; it's over."
Because it's not over.
AAPL should still be the stock it used to be during periods of volatility and uncertainty.
I recall late summer 2011. The markets got volatile. We saw more than a few days of triple-digit losses in the Dow.
In between the one-to-three day periods of weakness, we witnessed semi-strong relief rallies.
Even after factoring in Jobs's death, the least has changed at Apple.
Ralph experiences weakness on concerns over a slowdown in high-end spending. Amazon stunts occasionally, at least in part because of how much it spends to grow. I don't agree across the board, but that's all sensible.
Apple falling off of a cliff since September. That's not sensible.