Winners and Losers of 2012
It's important to learn and acknowledge both your successes and failures, and most investors have their fair share of each. I try not to rest on the successes, knowing full well that sometimes these are the result of dumb luck. It's certainly much more gratifying when you have a winner that results from conclusions drawn from your own analysis.
As a value investor, I tend to be drawn to some ugly ducklings; names that the market has all but given up on. These can be hugely profitable if you are correct and downright ugly if you are not. Fortunately, some of these have been my biggest winners for 2012.
Gannett (GCI) had a great year. This name, which was all but left for dead just a couple of years ago, is up 47% year to date. It's finally beginning to get some more attention, and the street is coming around to the notion that the company, which may never again be the powerhouse it once was, can still generate considerable free-cash flow. I recently closed my position (a year-end planning move) but will be looking for opportunities to re-establish a position in the future.
Chemical company Huntsman (HUN) rebounded nicely in 2012, after a rough 2011. Shares are up about 70% year to date. I also closed this position recently; one that I'd established in 2009, when the company was in turmoil following a failed acquisition by Hexion. In the resulting lawsuit, Huntsman was awarded a huge settlement, which bolstered the debt-ridden balance sheet.
Madison Square Garden (MSG) has also had a nice year, with shares up 56%. This one has never been in the "ugly duckling" category, just an asset rich company that owns Madison Square Garden, the NY Knicks, and NY Rangers, among other things, that until recently has been relatively underfollowed. I recently took profits here, too.
MSG data by YCharts
At the smaller end of the spectrum, Florida agriculture and land name Alico (ALCO) is up about 90% year to date. I've been a proponent of having exposure to agricultural land, and Alico did not disappoint in 2012.
There are some losers, too. Shares of USEC (USU) , a leading provider of uranium to the nuclear power industry, are down 50% year to date. It appears as though the market does not believe that equity will survive. The company has had difficulty obtaining loan guarantees from the U.S. Department of Energy in order to bolster its American centrifuge project, which has been fraught with issues. It's hard to imagine this company failing, but as investors sometimes forget, companies go bankrupt all the time and survive, but common stock rarely does in those instances. I still have a position here.