Don't Buy Disney -- Wait For the Post-Earnings Pullback To $40
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Whenever I come across a stock that has been on an impressive run, as media and entertainment conglomerate Disney(DIS) has experienced, I get nervous. A lot of that has to do with the fact that by nature, I tend to err on the side of caution, but there is also the famous Buffett axiom of "being fearful while others are greedy." When I look at Disney ahead of its earnings announcement, I see a stock that has not only gained 15% on the year, but one that has surged 52% since bottoming out at $28.19 on Oct. 4.
While I will admit a company such as Disney, which is as solid and fundamentally sound as they come, rarely fits the "bubble" criteria, it begs the question: How much more upside movement is left in a stock that is already trading not only at its fair market value, but arguably is (somewhat) expensive when compared with other media names such as Time Warner(TWX) and CBS(CBS) ? When you add the fact it is only percentage points away from its 52-week high, the level of anxiety heightens appreciably.
|After performance worthy of a fairy tale, how much more upside movement is left in Disney stock?|
Expectations for the quarter
Wall Street is expecting earnings of 55 cents per share, which would represent a 12% increase from the same period of a year ago on revenues of $9.56 billion, or up 5.4% from the prior year. The company should have no problem beating these numbers, as several of its rivals, including Time Warner, CBS as well as Viacom(VIA) have produced solid increases across the board in not only revenues but also better-than-expected margins -- all of which attributed the performances to better-than-expected advertising growth, distribution revenues as well as content licensing.