Why are Gold and Gold Stocks so Flat?
After the FOMC concludes its meeting on Wednesday Bernanke is supposed to have a press conference, and maybe he might pop the cork on a surprise bottle of stimulus champagne.
Is that possible? Yes, especially in the light of the uncertainty and banking instability in Europe and in this country. Is it likely to happen Wednesday? My guess is no, not yet.
Why am I feeling like the saying of the day should be "ready, get set, not yet"? Blame my cynicism on the price of gold, which didn't participate in Tuesday's rally, and actually went down.
If the FOMC and Bernanke were all set to use their biggest options to stabilize the U.S. and European economic woes, I would think we'd see this reflected in the price of gold moving decisively higher.
Take a look at this 12-month chart of the SPDR Gold Shares(GLD) , an ETF that's geared to closely replicate the price of 1/10th of an ounce of gold per share. Gold closed Tuesday at approximately $1,619, down almost $8 an ounce from Friday's price. GLD closed at $157.16, down about a half of 1%.
So if you're a believer in the Elliot Wave Principle, you might be able to decipher the notion of a 4 wave pattern downward (from the August-September 2011 highs) that may have ended around May 16.
The theory suggests to its adherents to look for a 5 wave that the majority of time brings a climactic ascent to new highs. If that happens for gold it could come before 2012 closes.
The gold-mining stocks as represented by the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF(GDX) are still well below both their 100-day and 200-day moving averages, as seen in this chart.