[video] Quick Take: Shutdown Could Shake the Markets
Historically speaking, five of the nine worst crashes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average have come in October, Collins said. A lot of technicians have been saying the markets are ripe for a steep pullback, citing equities as overvalued near these levels.
The government last shutdown about 17 years ago, but it did not last very long. Collins said that if this current shutdown is also short, it shouldn't have a huge effect on the market. However, it is a troublesome development considering October's history.
He said with the debt ceiling debate coming up shortly, this current shutdown will be a problem if it's not over in a couple of days. But what about tapering? Collins noted that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was quick to remind the market tapering is data-dependent, and the data have not been overwhelmingly positive in recent months.
Unless the government shutdown is lifted relatively soon, Collins concluded that a taper will not likely take place in October either. It might not happen this year, depending on the data and other events.