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Holiday Sales, Housing Recovery Are Key to Recovery

Tickers in this article: BBY HD LOW RTH ^HGX
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Recent readings on consumer confidence have been weaker than expected and Wednesday we'll get the Retail Sales for October which are expected to show a rise of 0.3%. Next week we get the November reading of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence index, which is expected to rise slightly to 73.0, still well below the 90 to 110 neutral range.

Meanwhile the Market Vectors Retail ETF ($60.61) traded to a new multi-year high at $61.31 on Friday and is overbought on its daily chart and well above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $57.19 and $52.78. My weekly value level is $60.42 with a monthly risky level at $61.34. The performance of this ETF seems to point to better than expected holiday sales, while a report from Morgan Stanley projects that this year's holiday season will be the weakest since 2008.

This week we present my buy-and-trade strategies for 18 retailers pre-earnings.

On Monday I wrote Best Buy, Home Depot Headline Tuesday's Earnings and in this post I profiled two benchmark retailers that reported results this morning.

Best Buy ($43.56) beat estimates by 6 cents earning 18 cents a share. The buy rated retailer of electronics and appliances also beat on the revenue earning $9.36 billion. Same store sales rose just 0.3% less than half 0.7% expectations. The stock fell as much as 8% in premarket trading with trades below its 50-day SMA at $40.48. This stock set a multi-year high at $44.66 on Thursday.

Home Depot ($79.67) beat estimates by 5 cents earning 95 cents a share. The buy rated retailer of home improvement products reported revenue rose 7% to $19.47 billion and that U.S. same store sales increased by 8.2%. Home Depot also raised its full year guidance. As a result of this strong earnings report the stock popped above its May 22 multi-year high at $81.56 in premarket trading with its monthly risky level at $83.59.

Earlier today I profiled three retailers in Deere, Lowes Headline Wednesday's Earnings that report tomorrow including Lowes ($50.89) which had been out-performing rival Home Depot, setting a multi-year high at $52.08 on Friday.