Salmon: Cyprus' Bad Haircut Day
One very big hint comes from the fact that the Cypriot finance minister, Michael Sarris, is in Moscow Tuesday (where, according to Reuters, he's denying via text message reports that he has resigned). Russia accounts for the lion's share of Cyprus' uninsured deposits, and president Vladimir Putin has said, according to Business Insider , that even a 9.9% tax on those deposits would be "unjust, unprofessional and dangerous." Given that the only way that Cypriot president Nicos Anastasiades kept the tax to less than 10% was by taxing the insured depositors at an unacceptable 6.75%, there is obviously a lot of appetite within Russia to help Cyprus find a way out of this mess.
One way to do that would be for Gazprom, the Russian energy giant, to spend a few billion euros ( see Greece.GreekReporter.com) on rights to Cyprus' natural gas resources; another, according to Storify would be for the Russians to buy a bank or two ( see this Financial Times article ), leaving Cyprus to raid local pension schemes for extra liquidity until natural-gas revenues come on stream. Or, of course, there's always the Buchheit-Gulati option, I recently wrote about . The thing they all have in common is the idea that they're basically trying to provide a bridge to the point at which Cyprus starts getting lots of money from its natural gas. Of course, the gas might not exist at all, or (according to the Guardian), it might take a decade before it actually starts seeing revenues, so there's risk here. But the point is that in Cyprus, uniquely, kicking the can down the road actually makes sense: If you get far enough down the road, there's a real chance that everybody could end up being paid off in full, or making a substantial profit.
It's not clear that Greece's parliament will grok the distinction, however, which makes this particular game very dangerous for the Eurogroup. For the time being, the EU and IMF -- and, crucially, the ECB (according to Reuters) -- are keeping the lines open to Nicosia: The idea seems to be that so long as they don't need to cough up any more than the 10 billion euros they've already agreed to, they'll let Cyprus find the balance of the needed cash any way it wants. But here's the rub: If Cyprus gets to reject the Troika and largely set its own terms, then everybody else ( the Greek parliament) will want to be able to do that as well. And no one in Europe's centers of power really wants the Mediterranean periphery getting too uppity.