Sirius Investors Suffer From Selective Amnesia
A lot of that has had to do with the fact that the stock has not reacted, as it has in the past, leading into its quarterly announcement. There has always been a typical jump (at least) 10 trading days ahead of the report. Instead, investors have had to deal with the realities of insiders and, in particular, CEO Mel Karmazin, who sold 11 million shares last week at an average price of $2.20 for a profit of $25 million.
What struck me as odd was not the fact that Karmazin sold his shares. That was known -- he wanted to fund his charitable causes, a noble gesture. But, remarkably, some investors continue to think that the intent of the sale somehow applies a separate disclaimer to the 11 million new shares that just flooded the market, essentially "Yes, he sold, but ..."
It was disappointing to hear the howls resonating from Sirius longs suggesting "thank you for your shares, Mel!" The only logical conclusion from which I can draw from those remarks was: "Can these investors walk and chew gum at the same time?" I'm not convinced they can.
Since reaching a 2012 high of $2.41 on April 2, the stock has lost as much as 12%, dropping to $2.11 on Monday. My gut tells me that Netflix's report (another subscription service) has had a lot to do with the recent bearishness on Sirius.
Rising gas prices have hurt not only consumer confidence, but also companies such as Sirius, which rely on discretionary spending. Upon the release of Netflix's first-quarter earnings report, the stock dropped 14%, the biggest decline since October.
What bothered Netflix investors (many of whom deserve a considerable amount of credit) is that they now see the light and understand that the company has significant headwinds with growth. The company said subscribers would drop considerably in the current quarter. Netflix is now focusing on "making money" rather than growing subscribers. It has essentially admitted that subscriber growth has (for all intents and purposes) stopped.