The Deal: For Verizon, Fewer Hang-ups This Time Around
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Talks between Vodafone Group
The potential for rising interest rates may increase the urgency for Verizon to get a deal done. While rates are still historically low, a purchase of Vodafone's 45% could still be accretive at a price of $130 billion. Changes in Vodafone's perspective may also make a deal more likely this time around.
"Vodafone needs money," if the U.K. wireless carrier wants to continue its strategy of combining wireline and wireless networks in Europe, said Roger Entner of Dedham, Mass., consultancy Recon Analytics.
Vodafone in June agreed to buy Kabel Deutschland Holding for ¿ 7.7 billion ($10.1 billion). A mega-payout from Verizon would give the London telecom an unrivaled war chest to consolidate other markets.
"They would have deeper pockets than everyone in Europe, than anyone in the world," Entner said, "and all they do is get rid of a noncore market." While it would be a regulatory impossibility, Entnet noted, in most European countries Vodafone could buy every single wireless carrier if the regulators would allow them.
Craig Moffett of Moffett Research suggested in a Thursday note that a diminished view of the U.S. wireless market could motivate Vodafone to exit the profitable JV. The U.S. market's revenue growth and margins may be the most attractive among developed countries, he noted, even with four national carriers.
"There is little prospect for things getting materially better for Verizon Wireless," he wrote, "and a meaningful chance that things get worse."
Vodafone's experience in Japan could inform its view of the U.S. In 2006, the company sold its Japanese carrier to SoftBank, whose chairman and CEO Masayoshi Son has ignited competition and lowered prices. Softbank has, of course, just taken a controlling stake in Sprint
"Vodafone's management may be looking at the U.S. and saying to itself, 'We've seen this movie before,'" he wrote.